Oxford are third, but League One's promotion race should revolve around them

Huddersfield lead and Stockport sit second, but Oxford's win over County exposes the danger of reading League One's table without counting the matches.

League tables are supposed to clarify things. League One’s currently offers an excellent opportunity to be confidently misled. Huddersfield lead on 25 points, Stockport County follow on 23 and Oxford United sit third on 22. Neat enough, until you reach the matches-played column: 12, 13 and 11 respectively. My argument is not that Oxford are secretly champions already. It is that, after beating Stockport 1-0, they deserve to be treated as a central force in this promotion race rather than the supporting act their position might suggest.

That victory matters because it came against precisely the sort of opponent Oxford must displace. There is a temptation to make every meeting near the top sound like a referendum on the entire season; this was no such thing. But Oxford took three points while denying them to the side immediately above. They now sit one point behind Stockport with two games in hand. Those outstanding fixtures are not money in the bank, but they are opportunities County do not possess. Second place looks rather less commanding when viewed from that angle.

The comparison with Huddersfield is more demanding, and that is worth acknowledging. The leaders have 25 points from 12 matches and a goal difference of plus 13, against Oxford’s plus nine. There is no need to diminish that record to make Oxford’s case. Yet Oxford are three points behind having played one match fewer. The distance between them is therefore manageable without requiring Huddersfield to collapse. Oxford do not need a dramatic rescue operation or a promotion rival to discover an elaborate new way of losing. They need to keep collecting points.

What makes their position particularly interesting is the congestion underneath. Bradford and Plymouth also have 22 points, while Reading have 21. On points alone, Oxford appear to be standing in a crowded lift. But Bradford and Reading have played 12 matches, and Plymouth 13. Oxford have accumulated their total in fewer outings than every other club in the supplied top six. That does not guarantee superiority over the months ahead. It does, however, make the current pile-up look more flattering to some of their rivals than it does to them.

The sensible objection is that games in hand have a habit of becoming fixtures somebody must actually win. Quite right. Oxford should not be awarded imaginary points, and a 1-0 victory cannot tell us everything about their ability to sustain a challenge. There is not enough evidence here to pronounce on their tactical identity or declare them the division’s most complete side. But caution should work both ways. Refusing to count unplayed matches as victories is sensible; ignoring the advantage of having those matches available is merely caution wearing blinkers.

For Oxford, the challenge now is to turn this favourable position into an ordinary habit rather than an exciting talking point. For everyone assessing the race, the adjustment should happen already. Huddersfield have earned the lead, and Stockport remain above Oxford, but the win over County makes third place look like an incomplete description rather than a settled verdict. Promotion arguments tend to gravitate towards whoever occupies the highest row. In this League One race, the most interesting column is the one marked played.